May 18, 2015

An accurate genetic clock

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
David H Hamilton


Molecular clocks give \``Time to most recent common ancestor'' TMRCA} of genetic trees. By Watson-Galton most lineages terminate, with a few overrepresented singular lineages generated by W. Hamilton's \``kin selection''. Applying current methods to this non-uniform branching produces greatly exaggerated TMRCA. We introduce an inhomogenous stochastic process which detects singular lineages by asymmetries, whose reduction gives true TMRCA. This implies a new method for computing mutation rates. Despite low rates similar to mitosis data, reduction implies younger TMRCA, with smaller errors. We establish accuracy by a comparison across a wide range of time, indeed this is only clock giving consistent results for both short and long term times. In particular we show that the dominant European y-haplotypes R1a1a & R1b1a2, expand from c3700BC, not reaching Anatolia before c3300BC. While this contradicts current clocks which date R1b1a2 to either the Neolithic Near East$ or Paleo-Europe, our dates support recent genetic analysis of ancient skeletons by Reich.

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Mentioned in this Paper

Trees (plant)
Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression
Genetic Analysis
Genetic Screening Method
KIN gene
Thoracic Skeleton
Branching (Qualifier Value)

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