An adapted ODE model to study the Dynamics of SARS-Cov-2 Infection (COVID-19): different scenarios for Brazil and other countries

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Ramón E. R. GonzálezCarlos Andrés Collazos Morales

Abstract

A mathematical model to calculate the transmissibility of SARS-Cov-2 in Wuhan City was developed and published recently by Tian-Mu Chen et al. The present work generalizes this model to study the effect of different scenarios that include actions to contain the pandemic, such as the isolation and quarantine of infected and at-risk people. Comparisons made between the different scenarios show that the progress of the infection depends heavily on the measures taken in each case. The particular case of some countries, was studied, showing the dynamics of infection in comparison with the different scenarios contained in the model. Real data from different countries, such as Brazil, was used for the validation of the model. This study shows that the model reproduce adequately the dynamic of infection for all studied countries. The relative evolution of the number of new infections and reported cases was used to estimate a pandemic containment date. The progression of the epidemic was analyzed using the system’s phase diagram, which shows the "path" followed by the epidemic in each scenario. Finally, the basic values of the number of reproduction R0 were estimated for each scenario, ranging from 4.04 to 1.12.

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