An assessment of public health surveillance of Zika virus infection and potentially associated outcomes in Latin America

BMC Public Health
Leonelo E Bautista, Víctor M Herrera


We evaluated whether outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, newborn microcephaly, and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in Latin America may be detected through current surveillance systems, and how cases detected through surveillance may increase health care burden. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of surveillance case definitions using published data. We assumed a 10% ZIKV infection risk during a non-outbreak period and hypothetical increases in risk during an outbreak period. We used sensitivity and specificity estimates to correct for non-differential misclassification, and calculated a misclassification-corrected relative risk comparing both periods. To identify the smallest hypothetical increase in risk resulting in a detectable outbreak we compared the misclassification-corrected relative risk to the relative risk corresponding to the upper limit of the endemic channel (mean + 2 SD). We also estimated the proportion of false positive cases detected during the outbreak. We followed the same approach for microcephaly and GBS, but assumed the risk of ZIKV infection doubled during the outbreak, and ZIKV infection increased the risk of both diseases. ZIKV infection outbreaks were not detectable through non-serologi...Continue Reading


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Related Concepts

Zika Virus Disease (Disorder)
Zika virus (organism)
Disease Outbreaks
Guillain-Barre Syndrome
Public Health Surveillance
Guillain-Barre Syndrome
Ion Channel
Serologic Tests
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