An empirical multivariate log-normal distribution representing uncertainty of biokinetic parameters for 137Cs

Radiation Protection Dosimetry
G MillerL Bertelli

Abstract

A simplified biokinetic model for (137)Cs has six parameters representing transfer of material to and from various compartments. Using a Bayesian analysis, the joint probability distribution of these six parameters is determined empirically for two cases with quite a lot of bioassay data. The distribution is found to be a multivariate log-normal. Correlations between different parameters are obtained. The method utilises a fairly large number of pre-determined forward biokinetic calculations, whose results are stored in interpolation tables. Four different methods to sample the multidimensional parameter space with a limited number of samples are investigated: random, stratified, Latin Hypercube sampling with a uniform distribution of parameters and importance sampling using a lognormal distribution that approximates the posterior distribution. The importance sampling method gives much smaller sampling uncertainty. No sampling method-dependent differences are perceptible for the uniform distribution methods.

References

Apr 15, 2004·Health Physics·A Iulian Apostoaei, Laurence F Miller
Jan 16, 2007·Radiation Protection Dosimetry·Guthrie Miller

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Citations

Dec 20, 2018·Radiation Research·Sara DumitSergei Y Tolmachev

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