An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: the EPIC study

British Journal of Cancer
K LiRudolf Kaaks

Abstract

Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202,206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 10, 2015·Tumour Biology : the Journal of the International Society for Oncodevelopmental Biology and Medicine·Teresa GranatoEmanuela Anastasi
Jan 19, 2019·Anti-cancer Agents in Medicinal Chemistry·Katarzyna Bednarska-SzczepaniakMarek Nowak
Mar 17, 2017·Cancer Causes & Control : CCC·Shelley S Tworoger, Jennifer Anne Doherty
Nov 22, 2017·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Renée T FortnerRudolf Kaaks
Nov 2, 2019·Platelets·Ganiy Opeyemi AbdulrahmanK Lutchman Singh
Apr 5, 2016·Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention : APJCP·Zubair AhmadNaila Kayani
Aug 10, 2017·Oncology Letters·Liang ShenChangzhong Li
Aug 18, 2020·F1000Research·Qurratulann AlviAli Dabbagh
Feb 9, 2017·Analytical Cellular Pathology (Amsterdam)·Li-Qian ZhangLing-Ping Zhao
Apr 10, 2016·Clinical Cancer Research : an Official Journal of the American Association for Cancer Research·Kathryn L TerryRudolf Kaaks
Sep 24, 2021·BJOG : an International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology·J A TaylorA Gentry-Maharaj

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
hormone
contraception

Software Mentioned

SAS
R
R package ‘ eha '
mice
R Foundation for Statistical Computing

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