An evidence-based microsimulation model for colorectal cancer: validation and application.

Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology
Carolyn M Rutter, James E Savarino

Abstract

The Colorectal Cancer Simulated Population model for Incidence and Natural history (CRC-SPIN) is a new microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer that can be used for comparative effectiveness studies of colorectal cancer screening modalities. CRC-SPIN simulates individual event histories associated with colorectal cancer, based on the adenoma-carcinoma sequence: adenoma initiation and growth, development of preclinical invasive colorectal cancer, development of clinically detectable colorectal cancer, death from colorectal cancer, and death from other causes. We present the CRC-SPIN structure and parameters, data used for model calibration, and model validation. We also provide basic model outputs to further describe CRC-SPIN, including annual transition probabilities between various disease states and dwell times. We conclude with a simple application that predicts the impact of a one-time colonoscopy at age 50 on the incidence of colorectal cancer assuming three different operating characteristics for colonoscopy. CRC-SPIN provides good prediction of both the calibration and the validation data. Using CRC-SPIN, we predict that a one-time colonoscopy greatly reduces colorectal cancer incidence over the...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 16, 2011·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Marjolein van BallegooijenKaren M Kuntz
Sep 9, 2011·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Carolyn M RutterJames E Savarino
Mar 26, 2011·Academic Radiology·Carolyn M RutterPari V Pandharipande
Nov 1, 2013·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Marjolein J E GreuterVeerle M H Coupé
Nov 6, 2015·Journal of the National Cancer Institute·Jane J KimUNKNOWN Population-based Research Optimizing Screening through Personalized Regimens (PROSPR) consortium
Sep 30, 2016·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Leslie Anne CampbellDonald MacIntosh
Jan 10, 2016·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Carolyn M RutterIris Lansdorp-Vogelaar
May 12, 2017·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Ankur PandyaThomas A Gaziano
Sep 25, 2019·PharmacoEconomics·Fernando Alarid-EscuderoEva A Enns
Mar 2, 2017·PharmacoEconomics·Nicolas A MenziesJane J Kim
Aug 28, 2020·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Jie-Bin LewKaren Canfell
Jan 18, 2019·JCO Clinical Cancer Informatics·Çağlar ÇağlayanChristopher R Flowers
Jun 7, 2017·BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making·Meher K PrakashBenjamin Misselwitz
Nov 19, 2017·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Carolyn M RutterAnna N A Tosteson

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