An externally validated robust risk predictive model of adverse outcomes after carotid endarterectomy

Journal of Vascular Surgery
Mohammad H EslamiAlik Farber

Abstract

The goal of this study was to construct and externally validate a risk prediction model for patients who undergo carotid endarterectomy (CEA). The Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) and Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) databases were queried for patients who underwent CEA. Data on perioperative variables, comorbidities, and medications were entered into a logistic regression model as predictors of the composite adverse outcomes in the VSGNE sample. Adverse outcomes were defined if the patient experienced any of the following events: postoperative stroke, myocardial infarction, mortality, or discharge to rehabilitation facility. Backward elimination (α level of .2) was then used to select a more parsimonious model. Calibration was performed to measure how closely predicted outcomes agreed with observed outcomes. To assess calibration we used Hosmer-Lemeshow test, the predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. The external validation was then performed using the VQI sample after excluding those in the VSGNE sample (VQI-VSGNE) following a similar method. The constructed model showed a substantial predictive capability of adverse outcomes (C = 0.711) with goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow lack of fit t...Continue Reading

References

Aug 15, 1991·The New England Journal of Medicine·UNKNOWN North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial CollaboratorsM Eliasziw
May 4, 2004·Statistics in Medicine·Lisa M SullivanRalph B D'Agostino
Nov 26, 2008·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Anton N SidawyUNKNOWN Outcomes Committee for the Society for Vascular Surgery
May 28, 2010·The New England Journal of Medicine·Thomas G BrottUNKNOWN CREST Investigators
Jun 1, 2010·Journal of the American College of Surgeons·Martin A MakaryLinda P Fried
Nov 26, 2010·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Mohammad H EslamiLouis M Messina
Apr 20, 2011·Zhongguo xiu fu chong jian wai ke za zhi = Zhongguo xiufu chongjian waike zazhi = Chinese journal of reparative and reconstructive surgery·Zhiqing WeiChangjian Liu
May 1, 2012·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Jack L CronenwettRichard P Cambria
Jun 29, 2013·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Mark F ConradRichard P Cambria
Jul 22, 2014·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Mark F ConradRichard P Cambria
Dec 17, 2014·Journal of Vascular Surgery·Alyson A MelinJason M Johanning

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Citations

Oct 31, 2019·Journal of the American Heart Association·Hormuzdiyar H DasenbrockRose Du
Dec 22, 2020·Annals of Vascular Surgery·Dylan DominguezJeffrey J Siracuse
Nov 17, 2017·Deutsches Ärzteblatt International·Hans-Henning EcksteinMichael Kallmayer
Jun 17, 2018·The Journal of Surgical Research·Danielle C SutzkoNicholas H Osborne
Oct 13, 2021·Stroke; a Journal of Cerebral Circulation·Michiel H F PoorthuisGert J de Borst

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