An Eye on the Future of COVID-19: Prediction of Likely Positive Cases and Fatality in India over a 30-Day Horizon Using the Prophet Model.

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
Vatsal TulshyanMamta Mittal

Abstract

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was initiated in Wuhan Province of mainland China in December 2019 and has spread over the world. This study analyzes the effects of COVID-19 based on likely positive cases and fatality in India during and after the lockdown period from March 24, 2020, to May 24, 2020. Python has been used as the main programming language for data analysis and forecasting using the Prophet model, a time series analysis model. The data set has been preprocessed by grouping together the days for total numbers of cases and deaths on few selected dates and removing missing values present in some states. The Prophet model performs better in terms of precision on the real data. Prediction depicts that, during the lockdown, the total cases were rising but in a controlled manner with an accuracy of 87%. After the relaxation of lockdown rules, the predictions have shown an obstreperous situation with an accuracy of 60%. The resilience could have been better if the lockdown with strict norms was continued without much relaxation. The situation after lockdown has been found to be uncertain as observed by the experimental study conducted in this work.

References

May 2, 2020·Chaos, Solitons, and Fractals·Tanujit Chakraborty, Indrajit Ghosh
Aug 25, 2020·Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment : Research Journal·R SujathAboul Ella Hassanien

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jul 25, 2021·Sensors·Sergio Márquez-SánchezJuan M Corchado
Jul 13, 2021·Journal of Big Data·Murtadha D HssayeniBehnaz Ghoraani

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.