An integrated extrapolation of long-term outcomes in systemic lupus erythematosus: analysis and simulation of the Hopkins lupus cohort.

Rheumatology
Penny WatsonMichelle Petri

Abstract

The aim of this study was to develop an SLE disease model that simulates long-term outcomes of SLE to estimate the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SLE treatments. Longitudinal data from 1354 patients from the Hopkins Lupus Cohort were included in the analysis. Statistical models were created to estimate disease activity [Safety of Estrogen in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA) SLEDAI scale] and prednisone dose over time using linear regression. Survival models for organ damage and mortality were created. The models were combined in a predictive simulation of SLE organ damage and mortality. Predictions were assessed against the Hopkins Lupus Cohort data. The analyses found that change in the annual average SLEDAI score was associated with the previous annual average SLEDAI score, renal involvement, age, male gender, African American ethnicity, anaemia, haematological involvement, increased DNA binding and low complement. The annual average prednisone dose increased for every unit increase in annual average SLEDAI. Organ damage and mortality modelling demonstrated that adjusted mean SLEDAI and binary SLEDAI organ involvement indicators predicted mortality, cardiovascular, renal, neuropsychiatric, p...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 18, 2019·São Paulo Medical Journal = Revista Paulista De Medicina·Valentina ŽivkovićVladimir Jurišić
Nov 26, 2019·International Journal of Rheumatic Diseases·Ga Young AhnSang-Cheol Bae
Jun 4, 2015·International Ophthalmology Clinics·Ian Y L YeungChi-Chao Chan
Jul 4, 2021·Rheumatic Diseases Clinics of North America·Christopher RedmondSarfaraz A Hasni

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