An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

Breast Cancer Research : BCR
Francisco J Candido Dos ReisPaul D P Pharoah

Abstract

PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in 'step' changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 13, 2018·Histopathology·Emad A RakhaLes W Dalton
Aug 16, 2019·PloS One·Gerson Hiroshi YoshinariEduardo M Rego
Sep 1, 2019·Breast Cancer Research and Treatment·Liza A HovelingSabine Siesling
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Jul 19, 2018·Annals of Surgical Oncology·Tania Samantha de SilvaDaniel Richard Leff
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Jul 27, 2018·Breast Cancer Research and Treatment·Gelareh Farshid, David Walters
Jan 29, 2019·APMIS : Acta Pathologica, Microbiologica, Et Immunologica Scandinavica·Maria RossingFinn Cilius Nielsen
Jul 1, 2018·World Journal of Surgery·Hyeon Woo BaeByeong-Woo Park
May 1, 2019·Bioinformatics·Lara SchneiderHans-Peter Lenhof
Aug 15, 2019·Breast Cancer Research : BCR·Ching-Chieh HuangSkye Hung-Chun Cheng
Feb 12, 2020·Cancers·Claudia MazoWilliam M Gallagher
Feb 16, 2018·Clinical Cancer Research : an Official Journal of the American Association for Cancer Research·Solon KarapanagiotisPaul J Newcombe
Jul 9, 2020·Computational and Structural Biotechnology Journal·Jocelyn GalEmmanuel Chamorey
Jan 17, 2021·Cancer Medicine·Karen ZaguirreMasafumi Nakamura
Oct 28, 2020·Nature Genetics·Kelly L BoltonElli Papaemmanuil
Nov 7, 2020·Modern Pathology : an Official Journal of the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology, Inc·Kimberly H Allison
Feb 10, 2021·Modern Pathology : an Official Journal of the United States and Canadian Academy of Pathology, Inc·Laurence SlembrouckGiuseppe Floris
Feb 5, 2021·Diagnostic and Prognostic Research·Lijing LinNiels Peek

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Software Mentioned

PREDCIT
PREDICT
Google Analytics
Stata
ECRIC

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