Análise Probabilística Considerando Incertezas como Cargas e Geração

Washington Luiz Araújo NevesMartins Borburema

Abstract

Os métodos de Monte Carlo e da Soma de Potência foram combinados numa rotina computacional de cálculo de fluxo de potência probabilístico em redes de distribuição radiais de geração solar fotovoltaica, visando resultados mais realísticos dos perfis de tensão. As cargas e geração solar são variáveis aleatórias de entrada. Então, essas cargas são modeladas como tendo distribuição normal e as funções de distribuição de probabilidade e distribuição acumulada da potência injetada são obtidas por meio de dados reais utilizando a distribuição generalizada de valores extremos. A rotina computacional desenvolvida foi aplicada no cálculo do fluxo de potência no sistema-teste IEEE 33 barras com a inserção de um e dois geradores. Os resultados demonstram que o método proposto pode ser aplicado para verificar probabilisticamente se as tensões atendem os limites desejados em todas as barras de carga de um sistema conectado à rede fotovoltaica.

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