Analysis of Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) modeling approach for predicting distributions of fleas implicated as vectors of plague, Yersinia pestis, in California

Journal of Medical Entomology
Jennifer C Z AdjemianJanet E Foley

Abstract

More than 20 species of fleas in California are implicated as potential vectors of Yersinia pestis. Extremely limited spatial data exist for plague vectors-a key component to understanding where the greatest risks for human, domestic animal, and wildlife health exist. This study increases the spatial data available for 13 potential plague vectors by using the ecological niche modeling system Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict their respective distributions. Because the available sample sizes in our data set varied greatly from one species to another, we also performed an analysis of the robustness of GARP by using the data available for flea Oropsylla montana (Baker) to quantify the effects that sample size and the chosen explanatory variables have on the final species distribution map. GARP effectively modeled the distributions of 13 vector species. Furthermore, our analyses show that all of these modeled ranges are robust, with a sample size of six fleas or greater not significantly impacting the percentage of the in-state area where the flea was predicted to be found, or the testing accuracy of the model. The results of this study will help guide the sampling efforts of future studies focusing on pla...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 12, 2014·BMC Infectious Diseases·Quan QianQun Li
Oct 25, 2008·International Journal of Health Geographics·Simon B NeerinckxHerwig Leirs
Dec 25, 2008·PloS One·William E BanksMaria-Fernanda Sánchez-Goñi
Oct 5, 2010·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Sean P MaherA Townsend Peterson
Sep 29, 2011·PLoS Pathogens·Tamara Ben-AriNils Chr Stenseth
Mar 22, 2014·PloS One·Courtney D CorleyMary J Lancaster
Dec 14, 2011·BMC Ecology·Jocelyn MullinsJason K Blackburn
Dec 4, 2012·Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases·Kathleen A AlexanderJason K Blackburn
Mar 31, 2016·Parasites & Vectors·Luther van der MeschtSonja Matthee
Apr 21, 2018·Parasites & Vectors·Rebecca RichmanMichaela Buenemann
Feb 23, 2011·Journal of Medical Entomology·Katryna A FleerJanet E Foley

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