PMID: 30024669Nov 1, 2016Paper

Analyzing the fine-scale dynamics of two dominant species in a Polytrichum—Myrtillus pine forest. I. A homogeneous Markov chain and cyclicity indices

Zhurnal obshcheĭ biologii
A A Maslov, D O Logofet

Abstract

Using long-term direct observations in a Polytrichum-Myrtillus pine forest, we have constructed and verified a homogeneous Markov chain model for two dominant species (Vaccinium myrtillus and V. vitis-idaed) at the late stages of succession. The sampling design features a large sample size (2000 quadrats) on permanent transects, several re-examinations with the interval of 5 years, and the use of species rooted frequency. As a model of the process under concern, the discrete Markov chain accounts for the following four states: both species being absent on the quadrat, one of them being present alone, and the joint presence of the both; the model time step coincides with the time interval between observations. The model is calibrated on the data of two successive examinations and verified on that of one more examination. All possible transitions between the states are revealed to realize in quadrats for one time interval, as well as the absence of transitions at each state, which results in the complete digraph (directed graph) of transitions. Major model results are obtained by the formulae of finite Markov chain theory: the steady-state square distribution, cyclicity characteristics, and the mean durations of stages in the f...Continue Reading

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