Another look at interpreting risk categories

Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment
Douglas Mossman

Abstract

Several studies over the past decade have shown that simple rating scales can accurately rank sex offenders' long-term risk of recidivism. But when using these scales as prediction tools, evaluators often wish to translate categories of risk into probabilities of recidivism. D. M. Doren (2004) has recently suggested that evaluators may use the recidivism percentages published in original studies of the RRASOR and STATIC-99 without regard to differences in populations or base rates. This article explains why Doren's computations should lead to a different conclusion, and describes how simply comparing percentages across studies can mislead researchers and clinicians. Instead, investigators should isolate and examine the detection properties of risk assessment instruments alone, independent of the population- or setting-specific base rate. This article explains this process, using an imaginary study to illustrate how base rates and the properties of risk assessment instruments yield estimated probabilities of recidivism. The article also shows why Doren's results imply that the percentages of recidivism associated with scores on the RRASOR and STATIC-99 scores may vary across study populations. The article offers recommendations ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 19, 2014·PloS One·Astrid RosseggerJay P Singh
Jun 19, 2009·Law and Human Behavior·R Karl HansonDavid Thornton
Oct 12, 2011·Journal of Interpersonal Violence·Ko Ling Chan
Jan 23, 2013·Behavioral Sciences & the Law·Grant T Harris, Marnie E Rice
Mar 5, 2020·Psychiatry, Psychology, and Law : an Interdisciplinary Journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law·Michael J Proeve, Gabrielle Wolf
Oct 4, 2011·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Don Grubin
Mar 1, 2008·Journal of Interpersonal Violence·Calvin M LangtonTamara Arenovich
Apr 27, 2013·Behavioral Sciences & the Law·Daniel J Neller, Giovanni Petris
May 21, 2008·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Theodore Donaldson, Richard Wollert
Nov 26, 2010·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Richard WollertJames Vess
Jan 3, 2013·Behavioral Sciences & the Law·Alec Buchanan
Apr 20, 2014·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Leslie Helmus, David Thornton
Feb 20, 2015·Behavioral Sciences & the Law·Grant T HarrisN Zoe Hilton
Oct 12, 2010·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Georgia D BarnettPhilip D Howard
Mar 5, 2014·The British Journal of Psychiatry : the Journal of Mental Science·Jay P SinghAlec Buchanan
May 1, 2013·Sexual Abuse : a Journal of Research and Treatment·Robert J McGrathStephen E Hoke

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