Anthropic shadow: observation selection effects and human extinction risks

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Milan M CirkovićNick Bostrom

Abstract

We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes such as asteroidal/cometary impacts, supervolcanic episodes, and explosions of supernovae/gamma-ray bursts are based on their observed frequencies. As a result, the frequencies of catastrophes that destroy or are otherwise incompatible with the existence of observers are systematically underestimated. We describe the consequences of this anthropic bias for estimation of catastrophic risks, and suggest some directions for future work.

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Citations

Oct 1, 2015·Origins of Life and Evolution of the Biosphere : the Journal of the International Society for the Study of the Origin of Life·Srdja Janković, Milan M Ćirković
Oct 20, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Milan M Cirković
Apr 5, 2013·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Bruce Tonn, Dorian Stiefel
Jun 4, 2014·Science and Engineering Ethics·Karim Jebari
Nov 30, 2018·Health Security·David Manheim
Jul 22, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson
Aug 1, 2019·Scientific Reports·Andrew E Snyder-BeattieMichael B Bonsall

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