Application of exponential smoothing for nosocomial infection surveillance

American Journal of Epidemiology
L NgoD Hadley

Abstract

Detection of outbreaks of infection or increases in bacterial resistance to antimicrobial agents is an essential component of hospital infection control surveillance. The authors applied the method of exponential smoothing to microbiology data from 1987-1992 to investigate a suspected outbreak of gentamicin resistance among Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacteria at the Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, San Francisco, California, in 1991-1992. The years 1987-1990 were used to develop the baseline for the forecast model. Application of the model indicated that two observed prominent peaks in the annual cumulative incidence of gentamicin-resistant P. aeruginosa were within the upper bounds of their respective 95% confidence intervals as estimated by the forecast model--i.e., that no epidemic was in progress. This prediction was supported by investigations by the hospital's infection control team which indicated that the apparent increases were due to readmission of patients previously known to harbor these organisms. In contrast, application of a typically employed method that ignores the time series data structure indicated that there were 6 months in which incidence rates exceeded the upper bounds of their respective 95% c...Continue Reading

Citations

Apr 12, 2013·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Fernanda C DóreaJavier Sanchez
Dec 25, 2002·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Samuel M BrownDonald A Goldmann
Jul 22, 1998·Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA·S E BrossetteS A Moser
Aug 19, 2011·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Pekka KaitaniemiKai Ruohomäki
Feb 16, 2006·Statistics in Medicine·Henrik Spliid
Sep 11, 2004·Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology : the Official Journal of the Society of Hospital Epidemiologists of America·Mary K Obenshain

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Allergy & Infectious Diseases (ASM)

Allergies result from the hyperreactivity of the immune system to some environmental substance and can be life-threatening. Infectious diseases are caused by organisms including bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites. They can be transmitted different ways, such as person-to-person. Here is the latest research on allergy and infectious diseases.

Antimicrobial Resistance (ASM)

Antimicrobial resistance poses a significant threat to the continued successful use of antimicrobial agents for the treatment of bacterial infections.

Allergy & Infectious Diseases

Allergies result from the hyperreactivity of the immune system to some environmental substance and can be life-threatening. Infectious diseases are caused by organisms including bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites. They can be transmitted different ways, such as person-to-person. Here is the latest research on allergy and infectious diseases.

Antimicrobial Resistance

Antimicrobial resistance poses a significant threat to the continued successful use of antimicrobial agents for the treatment of bacterial infections.