Application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Establishing Perchlorate and Goitrogen Risk Mitigation Strategies

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Douglas Crawford-Brown

Abstract

This paper applies probabilistic risk assessment in quantifying risks from cumulative and aggregate risk pathways for selected goitrogens in water and food. Results show that the percentages of individuals with a Hazard Index (HI) value above 1 ranges between 30% and 50% both with and without serum half-life correction when a traditional regulatory assessment approach based on establishment of a No Observed Effects Level (NOEL) is used. When an exposure-response curve is instead used and a threshold of 50% inhibition is assumed, 1.1% or less of the population exceeds an HI value of 1 with no serum half-life correction, rising to as high as 11% when serum half-life correction is applied. If 0% to 5% threshold for iodide uptake inhibition is assumed for production of adverse effects, the percentage of the population with an HI above 1 is 46.2% or less with no serum half-life correction, and 47.2% or less when serum half-life correction is applied. The probabilistic analysis shows that while there are exposed groups for whom perchlorate exposures are the primary cause of individuals having HI values above 1, these constitute significantly less than 1% of the population. Instead, the potential risk from exposure to goitrogens is do...Continue Reading

References

May 18, 2001·Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association·H W Ma, D J Crawford-Brown
Apr 28, 2005·Journal of Exposure Analysis and Environmental Epidemiology·Paul S Price, Christine F Chaisson
Jul 13, 2006·Environmental Health Perspectives·Doug Crawford-BrownMegan Harrod
Oct 20, 2006·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Benjamin C BlountJames L Pirkle
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Richard R LesterIgor Linkov
Aug 29, 2007·Analytica Chimica Acta·Maria W Tikkanen
Dec 9, 2010·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Ken Sexton, Stephen H Linder

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Citations

Dec 17, 2015·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Samuel Dorevitch

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