Assessing age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan

Vaccine
Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura

Abstract

Routine vaccination against measles in Japan started in 1978. Whereas measles elimination was verified in 2015, multiple chains of measles transmission were observed in 2016. We aimed to reconstruct the age-dependent susceptibility to measles in Japan so that future vaccination strategies can be elucidated. An epidemiological model was used to quantify the age-dependent immune fraction using datasets of vaccination coverage and seroepidemiological survey. The second dose was interpreted in two different scenarios, i.e., booster and random shots. The effective reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases generated by a single infected individual, and the age at infection were explored using the age-dependent transmission model and the next generation matrix. While the herd immunity threshold of measles likely ranges from 90% to 95%, assuming that the basic reproductive number ranges from 10 to 20, the estimated immune fraction in Japan was below those thresholds in 2016, despite the fact that the estimates were above 80% for all ages. If the second dose completely acted as the booster shot, a proportion immune above 90% was achieved only among those aged 5years or below in 2016. Alternatively, if the second dose wa...Continue Reading

Citations

Aug 30, 2018·Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics·David T S Hayman
Jun 21, 2018·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Kenji MizumotoGerardo Chowell
Mar 7, 2019·The Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases & Medical Microbiology = Journal Canadien Des Maladies Infectieuses Et De La Microbiologie Médicale·Taishi KayanoHiroshi Nishiura
May 31, 2019·Postgraduate Medical Journal·Midori Tanaka, Taku Harada
Apr 28, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Taishi KayanoHiroshi Nishiura

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