Assessing herd immunity against rubella in Japan: a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis of age-dependent transmission dynamics

BMJ Open
Ryo Kinoshita, Hiroshi Nishiura

Abstract

We aimed to epidemiologically assess rubella herd immunity as a function of time, age and gender in Japan, with reference to the recent 2012-2014 rubella epidemic. This study is a retrospective seroepidemiological analysis. The susceptible fraction of the population was examined as a function of age and time. The age at infection was assessed using reported case data. Whereas 30 years ago rubella cases were seen only among children, the median (25-75th centiles) age of cases in 2014 was elevated to 32.0 (17.0-42.0) years among males and 27.0 (7.0-37.0) years among females. Susceptible pockets among male birth cohorts 1989-1993 and 1974-1978 were identified, with seropositive proportions of 70.0% and 68.0%, respectively. The majority of female age groups had greater seropositive proportions than the herd immunity threshold, with a minor susceptible pocket for those born from 1989 to 1993 (78.3% seropositive). The age-standardised seronegative proportion decreased to 18.3% (95% CI 16.8% to 19.8%) among males and 15.6% (95% CI 10.0% to 21.2%) among females in 2013, and the immune fraction was not sufficiently below the herd immunity threshold. While the number of live births born to susceptible mothers in 1983 was estimated at 171...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 28, 2017·American Journal of Reproductive Immunology : AJRI·Terence T LaoDaljit S Sahota
Jun 13, 2017·Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics·Yusuke TanakaTadashi Kimura
Mar 23, 2018·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Masaya M SaitoHiroshi Nishiura
May 23, 2020·Vaccines·Vicente Javier Clemente-SuárezJose Francisco Tornero-Aguilera
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May 23, 2020·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Kenji Mizumoto, Gerardo Chowell
Oct 4, 2020·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Taishi KayanoHiroshi Nishiura

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