Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States

BMC Infectious Diseases
Lauren A CastroLauren Ancel Meyers

Abstract

Confirmed local transmission of Zika Virus (ZIKV) in Texas and Florida have heightened the need for early and accurate indicators of self-sustaining transmission in high risk areas across the southern United States. Given ZIKV's low reporting rates and the geographic variability in suitable conditions, a cluster of reported cases may reflect diverse scenarios, ranging from independent introductions to a self-sustaining local epidemic. We present a quantitative framework for real-time ZIKV risk assessment that captures uncertainty in case reporting, importations, and vector-human transmission dynamics. We assessed county-level risk throughout Texas, as of summer 2016, and found that importation risk was concentrated in large metropolitan regions, while sustained ZIKV transmission risk is concentrated in the southeastern counties including the Houston metropolitan region and the Texas-Mexico border (where the sole autochthonous cases have occurred in 2016). We found that counties most likely to detect cases are not necessarily the most likely to experience epidemics, and used our framework to identify triggers to signal the start of an epidemic based on a policymakers propensity for risk. This framework can inform the strategic t...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 19, 2017·Scientific Reports·Sergey A ShiryaevAlexey V Terskikh
May 24, 2019·PloS One·Xi ChenLauren Ancel Meyers
Sep 22, 2019·Nature Microbiology·Meagan C FitzpatrickAlison P Galvani
Jun 11, 2020·Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease·Rebekah C KadingGabriel L Hamer
Jun 7, 2018·BMC Medicine·Annelies Wilder-SmithCameron P Simmons
Dec 23, 2018·Expert Review of Molecular Diagnostics·Robert DuncanBryan Lanning
Jun 15, 2019·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Spencer J FoxLauren Ancel Meyers
Mar 30, 2018·Frontiers in Public Health·Shawn Dolley
Mar 30, 2018·PeerJ·Anuwat WiratsudakulCharin Modchang
May 6, 2019·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·G ChowellC Perrings
May 12, 2019·Scientific Reports·Tanvir FerdousiCaterina M Scoglio

Related Concepts

Zika Virus Disease (Disorder)
In Silico
Theoretical Study
Environment, Preventive Medicine and Public Health
Seasonal Variation
Benefit-Risk Assessment
Epidemic
Disease Vectors
Risk Assessment
Disease Transmission

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