Assessing temporal-spatial land use simulation effects with CLUE-S and Markov-CA models in Beijing

Environmental Science and Pollution Research International
Fangyu Zheng, Yecui Hu

Abstract

In order to solve the problem of extensive land use in rural residential areas and promote the construction of a new socialist countryside and farmland protection, it is important to graspe the temporal and spatial evolution of rural settlements. In this study, with Beijing as an example, the efficiencies of CLUE-S and Markov-CA models in simulating spatial temporal evolution of rural residential areas are analyzed. With 14 driving factors chosen, the land uses in Beijing in 2000 and 2005 are simulated and predicted using the two models. Grid size of 220 m × 220 m is used. The accuracies and Kappa coefficients of the simulation and prediction results are analyzed and the following conclusions are made. The core part of CLUE-S model is logistic regression, which grants it obvious advantage in capturing the trends of land use changes with more discrete distributions. Meanwhile, Markov-CA model takes neighborhood into consideration, making it relatively more advantageous in simulating and predicting changes of land uses with the character of nearest-neighbor diffusion. However, among various land uses, only urban land use has this character, the correct prediction rates of the CLUE-S model in 2000 and 2005 were 60.99% and 81.35%, ...Continue Reading

References

Jan 9, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Harold A MooneyAnne Larigauderie

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