Assessing the hospital surge capacity of the Kenyan health system in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic

PloS One
Edwine W BarasaE. A. Okiro

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic will test the capacity of health systems worldwide and especially so in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to assess the surge capacity of the Kenyan of the Kenyan health system in terms of general hospital and ICU beds in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. We assumed that 2% of the Kenyan population get symptomatic infection by SARS-Cov-2 based on modelled estimates for Kenya and determined the health system surge capacity for COVID-19 under three transmission curve scenarios, 6, 12, and 18 months. We estimated four measures of hospital surge capacity namely: 1) hospital bed surge capacity 2) ICU bed surge capacity 3) Hospital bed tipping point, and 5) ICU bed tipping point. We computed this nationally and for all the 47 county governments. The capacity of Kenyan hospitals to absorb increases in caseload due to COVID-19 is constrained by the availability of oxygen, with only 58% of hospital beds in hospitals with oxygen supply. There is substantial variation in hospital bed surge capacity across counties. For example, under the 6 months transmission scenario, the percentage of available general hospital beds that would be taken up by COVID-19 cases varied from 12% Tharaka Ni...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 26, 2020·BMJ Global Health·Peter M MachariaEmelda A Okiro
Sep 9, 2020·Sexual and Reproductive Health Matters·Cynthia Khamala Wangamati, Johanne Sundby
Jan 27, 2021·African Journal of Emergency Medicine : Revue Africaine De La Médecine D'urgence·Benjamin W Wachira, Margarita Mwai
Feb 23, 2021·Intensive Care Medicine·Yaseen M ArabiGiuseppe Citerio
Mar 5, 2021·Risk Management and Healthcare Policy·Bocong YuanGuojun Zeng
Mar 16, 2021·Nursing Ethics·Sheila ShaibuIsabel Kambo
Apr 1, 2021·SAGE Open Medicine·Denberu Eshetie AdaneAbebe Tiruneh Boled
Apr 20, 2021·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·Fahad AlqahtaniHani Jokhdar
Jul 27, 2021·Frontiers in Public Health·Yodi MahendradhataPungkas Bahjuri Ali
Sep 22, 2021·PloS One·Dimie OgoinaAbdulrazaq Garba Habib
Sep 1, 2021·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·Ezequiel MonteverdeJorge Neira
Nov 9, 2021·Anesthesia and Analgesia·Fitsum KifleJolene Moore

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