DOI: 10.1101/19005991Oct 10, 2019Paper

Assessing the impact of data aggregation in model predictions of HAT transmission and control activities

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
María Soledad CastañoNakul Chitnis

Abstract

Since the turn of the century, the global community has made great progress towards the elimination of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (HAT). Elimination programs, primarily relying on screening and treatment campaigns, have also created a rich database of HAT epidemiology. Mathematical models calibrated with these data can help to fill remaining gaps in our understanding of HAT transmission dynamics, including key operational research questions such as whether integrating vector control with current intervention strategies is needed to achieve HAT elimination. Here we explore, via an ensemble of models and simulation studies, which aspects of the available data and level of data aggregation, such as separation by disease stage, would be most useful for better understanding transmission dynamics and improving model reliability in making future predictions of control and elimination strategies.

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