Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation

PloS One
Mini SinghM Hernández-Jover

Abstract

The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farm...Continue Reading

References

Mar 1, 1992·Microbiological Reviews·R G WebsterY Kawaoka
Jan 1, 1982·Applied and Environmental Microbiology·D D Markwell, K F Shortridge
May 9, 2000·Veterinary Microbiology·D J Alexander
Jul 23, 2005·Australian Veterinary Journal·G Arzey
Dec 21, 2005·Journal of Veterinary Medicine. B, Infectious Diseases and Veterinary Public Health·H YoonS-H Wee
Nov 28, 2006·Vaccine·Dennis J Alexander
Dec 13, 2006·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·A Marm KilpatrickPeter Daszak
Aug 5, 2009·The Journal of Veterinary Medical Science·Akiko NishiguchiToshiyuki Tsutsui
Oct 1, 2009·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Yohannes BerhaneJohn Pasick
Dec 25, 2009·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Andrew Speirs-BridgeMark Burgman
Jul 14, 2010·Infection, Genetics and Evolution : Journal of Molecular Epidemiology and Evolutionary Genetics in Infectious Diseases·Martin HaaseTimm Harder
Dec 3, 2010·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Philip M HansbroAeron C Hurt
Oct 24, 2012·Influenza Research and Treatment·Dany ShohamKazuaki Takehara
Oct 12, 2013·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Sayuri ShigematsuJean-Claude Manuguerra
Mar 26, 2014·Trends in Microbiology·Rowland R KaoPablo R Murcia
Mar 29, 2014·The Journal of General Virology·Hongbo ZhangZe Chen
Sep 14, 2014·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·J L GonzalesA A de Koeijer
Dec 17, 2014·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·M Hernández-JoverJ-A L M L Toribio
Oct 28, 2015·Australian Veterinary Journal·V L GrilloL Post

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

Risk

Related Concepts