Assessment of probable scenarios of radiological emergency and their consequences.

International Journal of Radiation Biology
Yehoshua SocolBinyamin Brosh

Abstract

Despite the vast amount of literature on radiological emergencies, to the best of our knowledge there is no systematic review of probable scenarios and their consequences. This work aimed for compiling such review. The authors comprised a Red Team - that is, simulated best efforts to inflict maximal damage to the society by various means of radiological attacks. Nuclear warfare including improvised nuclear devices is beyond the scope of this work. The direct radiogenic health consequences of any conceivable radiological accident, natural or man-made, are much less dangerous than those which are usually perceived. In each scenario, direct health effects are only a small part of the damage caused by fear and over-reaction; the damage is somewhat independent of the small health effect predicted for most of the scenarios. The reason is that nuclear radiation has become perceptually connected with nuclear apocalypses. This connection has caused the emotional description of radiological emergencies to frequently substitute quantitative considerations. For example, Chernobyl and Fukushima became major humanitarian disasters not because of the radiation itself but because of the over-reaction of both the authorities and the public, tha...Continue Reading

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