Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

EcoHealth
Arne Bomblies, Elfatih A B Eltahir

Abstract

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle,...Continue Reading

Citations

Sep 20, 2011·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Jean-François Jusot, Oumarou Alto
Jul 22, 2011·Journal of Environmental and Public Health·Julius N FobilJuergen May
Aug 8, 2013·Parasites & Vectors·Teresa K YamanaElfatih A B Eltahir
Sep 18, 2013·Environmental Health Perspectives·Teresa K Yamana, Elfatih A B Eltahir
Sep 28, 2017·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Ibrahima DioufAmadou Thierno Gaye
Jun 26, 2020·Pathogens and Global Health·Christine GiesenZaida Herrador
Aug 19, 2018·Malaria Journal·Neal R SmithJennifer A Flegg

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