Attribution of climate forcing to economic sectors.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Nadine UngerSusanne Bauer

Abstract

A much-cited bar chart provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change displays the climate impact, as expressed by radiative forcing in watts per meter squared, of individual chemical species. The organization of the chart reflects the history of atmospheric chemistry, in which investigators typically focused on a single species of interest. However, changes in pollutant emissions and concentrations are a symptom, not a cause, of the primary driver of anthropogenic climate change: human activity. In this paper, we suggest organizing the bar chart according to drivers of change-that is, by economic sector. Climate impacts of tropospheric ozone, fine aerosols, aerosol-cloud interactions, methane, and long-lived greenhouse gases are considered. We quantify the future evolution of the total radiative forcing due to perpetual constant year 2000 emissions by sector, most relevant for the development of climate policy now, and focus on two specific time points, near-term at 2020 and long-term at 2100. Because sector profiles differ greatly, this approach fosters the development of smart climate policy and is useful to identify effective opportunities for rapid mitigation of anthropogenic radiative forcing.

References

Mar 16, 2006·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Nadine UngerDavid G Streets
Jan 9, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Jan FuglestvedtRagnhild Bieltvedt Skeie
Apr 28, 2009·Nature·Lina M MercadoPeter M Cox

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Citations

Mar 23, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Katsumasa TanakaKristin Rypdal
Aug 14, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Daven K HenzeChangsub Shim
Nov 21, 2012·Environmental Science & Technology·Nicholas L LamTami C Bond
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Jun 22, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Christopher D HolmesMichael J Prather
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Aug 2, 2016·Environmental Science & Technology·Scott Archer-NichollsChristine Wiedinmyer
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