Bayesian analysis of the short-term association of NO2 exposure with local burden of asthmatic symptoms in children

The Science of the Total Environment
Vera van ZoestAlfred Stein

Abstract

Short-term exposure to air pollution has been associated with exacerbation of respiratory diseases such as asthma. Substantial heterogeneity in effect estimates has been observed between previous studies. This study aims to quantify the local burden of daily asthma symptoms in asthmatic children in a medium-sized city. Air pollution exposure was estimated using the nearest sensor in a fine resolution urban air quality sensor network in the city of Eindhoven, the Netherlands. Bayesian estimates of the exposure response function were obtained by updating a priori information from a meta-analysis with data from a panel study using a daily diary. Five children participated in the panel study, resulting in a total of 400 daily diary records. Positive associations between NO2 and lower respiratory symptoms and medication use were observed. The odds ratio for any lower respiratory symptoms was 1.07 (95% C.I. 0.92, 1.28) expressed per 10 μg m-3 for current day NO2 concentration, using data from the panel study only (uninformative prior). Odds ratios for dry cough and phlegm were close to unity. The pattern of associations agreed well with the updated meta-analysis. The meta-analytic random effects summary estimate was 1.05 (1.02, 1.07)...Continue Reading

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