Bayesian assessment of overtriage and undertriage at a level I trauma centre

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
Paul B DiDomenicoM Elisabeth Paté-Cornell

Abstract

We analysed the trauma triage system at a specific level I trauma centre to assess rates of over- and undertriage and to support recommendations for system improvements. The triage process is designed to estimate the severity of patient injury and allocate resources accordingly, with potential errors of overestimation (overtriage) consuming excess resources and underestimation (undertriage) potentially leading to medical errors.We first modelled the overall trauma system using risk analysis methods to understand interdependencies among the actions of the participants. We interviewed six experienced trauma surgeons to obtain their expert opinion of the over- and undertriage rates occurring in the trauma centre. We then assessed actual over- and undertriage rates in a random sample of 86 trauma cases collected over a six-week period at the same centre. We employed Bayesian analysis to quantitatively combine the data with the prior probabilities derived from expert opinion in order to obtain posterior distributions. The results were estimates of overtriage and undertriage in 16.1 and 4.9% of patients, respectively. This Bayesian approach, which provides a quantitative assessment of the error rates using both case data and expert o...Continue Reading

References

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Citations

Apr 15, 2008·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Kelly H Zou, Aiyi Liu
Oct 20, 2011·Prehospital Emergency Care : Official Journal of the National Association of EMS Physicians and the National Association of State EMS Directors·Mark FaulRichard C Hunt
Apr 10, 2014·Emergency Medicine Journal : EMJ·Antonella ArdolinoUNKNOWN PERUKI group
Jan 11, 2020·Trauma Surgery & Acute Care Open·Jessica Lynn RyanMarie Crandall
May 9, 2012·International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care·Morgan E LimJean-Eric Tarride

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