Bayesian effect estimation accounting for adjustment uncertainty

Biometrics
Chi WangFrancesca Dominici

Abstract

Model-based estimation of the effect of an exposure on an outcome is generally sensitive to the choice of which confounding factors are included in the model. We propose a new approach, which we call Bayesian adjustment for confounding (BAC), to estimate the effect of an exposure of interest on the outcome, while accounting for the uncertainty in the choice of confounders. Our approach is based on specifying two models: (1) the outcome as a function of the exposure and the potential confounders (the outcome model); and (2) the exposure as a function of the potential confounders (the exposure model). We consider Bayesian variable selection on both models and link the two by introducing a dependence parameter, ω, denoting the prior odds of including a predictor in the outcome model, given that the same predictor is in the exposure model. In the absence of dependence (ω= 1), BAC reduces to traditional Bayesian model averaging (BMA). In simulation studies, we show that BAC, with ω > 1, estimates the exposure effect with smaller bias than traditional BMA, and improved coverage. We, then, compare BAC, a recent approach of Crainiceanu, Dominici, and Parmigiani (2008, Biometrika 95, 635-651), and traditional BMA in a time series data s...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 20, 2014·Science·Francesca DominiciCass R Sunstein
Aug 2, 2013·Radiation and Environmental Biophysics·Mark P Little
Mar 30, 2012·Biometrics·R Gutman, D B Rubin
Feb 6, 2013·Biometrics·Corwin M ZiglerFrancesca Dominici
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Oct 11, 2017·American Journal of Epidemiology·Joshua P Keller, Kenneth M Rice
May 19, 2017·Biostatistics·Josephine K Asafu-Adjei, Allan R Sampson
Apr 24, 2018·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Jacob V Spertus, Sharon-Lise T Normand
Oct 12, 2018·Biometrical Journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift·Janine Witte, Vanessa Didelez
May 12, 2018·Biometrics·Joseph AntonelliDenis Agniel
Mar 17, 2019·American Journal of Epidemiology·Susan M ShortreedJennifer C Nelson
Jan 16, 2020·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Brandon KochLaura Boehm Vock
Feb 12, 2017·Environmental Health : a Global Access Science Source·Michela BacciniMichele Carugno
Feb 20, 2018·Current Epidemiology Reports·John W JacksonElizabeth A Stuart
Jun 5, 2019·European Journal of Epidemiology·Denis Talbot, Victoria Kubuta Massamba
Apr 4, 2014·Journal of the American Statistical Association·Corwin Matthew Zigler, Francesca Dominici
Apr 2, 2019·Statistics in Medicine·Sarah C AnokeCorwin M Zigler
Aug 7, 2019·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Oliver Dukes, Stijn Vansteelandt
Mar 5, 2016·Statistics in Medicine·Andrew WeyKyle Rudser
Nov 15, 2019·Current Epidemiology Reports·Christine ChoiratMarianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou
May 21, 2020·Bayesian Analysis·Joseph AntonelliFrancesca Dominici

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