Bayesian estimation of the dynamics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza transmission in Queensland: A space-time SIR-based model

Environmental Research
Xiaodong HuangWenbiao Hu

Abstract

A pandemic strain of influenza A spread rapidly around the world in 2009, now referred to as pandemic (H1N1) 2009. This study aimed to examine the spatiotemporal variation in the transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 associated with changes in local socio-environmental conditions from May 7-December 31, 2009, at a postal area level in Queensland, Australia. We used the data on laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases to examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of transmission using a flexible Bayesian, space-time, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) modelling approach. The model incorporated parameters describing spatiotemporal variation in H1N1 infection and local socio-environmental factors. The weekly transmission rate of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was negatively associated with the weekly area-mean maximum temperature at a lag of 1 week (LMXT) (posterior mean: -0.341; 95% credible interval (CI): -0.370--0.311) and the socio-economic index for area (SEIFA) (posterior mean: -0.003; 95% CI: -0.004--0.001), and was positively associated with the product of LMXT and the weekly area-mean vapour pressure at a lag of 1 week (LVAP) (posterior mean: 0.008; 95% CI: 0.007-0.009). There was substantial spatiotemporal variation in transmission rate of ...Continue Reading

References

Feb 7, 1998·American Journal of Public Health·L SimonsenL B Schonberger
Jan 9, 2003·JAMA : the Journal of the American Medical Association·William W ThompsonKeiji Fukuda
Oct 3, 2003·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Carolyn Buxton BridgesCaroline B Hall
Apr 1, 2006·Science·Cécile ViboudBryan T Grenfell
Oct 24, 2007·PLoS Pathogens·Anice C LowenPeter Palese
Mar 4, 2008·Nature Chemical Biology·Ivan V PolozovJoshua Zimmerberg
Dec 8, 2009·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Carrie ReedLyn Finelli
Jun 25, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Rosalind M EggoNeil M Ferguson
Jun 2, 2011·PLoS Medicine·Gerardo ChowellVíctor H Borja-Aburto
Sep 6, 2011·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Philip R A BakerAmanda Dines
Jan 5, 2012·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Sander P van NoortM Gabriela M Gomes
Feb 9, 2012·Annals of Internal Medicine·David J D EarnJonathan Dushoff
May 11, 2012·Environment International·Wenbiao HuArchie Clements
Jul 1, 2010·Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology·Andrew B Lawson, Hae-Ryoung Song
Oct 17, 2012·American Journal of Epidemiology·Alan I Barreca, Jay P Shimshack
Jul 12, 2013·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Daihai HeDavid J D Earn
Jul 25, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ilaria DorigattiNeil M Ferguson
Sep 13, 2013·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Daihai HeDavid J D Earn
Dec 18, 2013·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·P D N N Sirisena, F Noordeen
Jun 13, 2014·PLoS Computational Biology·Julia R GogBryan T Grenfell

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.