Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy

Journal of the Neurological Sciences
R BergamaschiPREMS (Pavia REgister of Multiple Sclerosis) Group

Abstract

The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.

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Citations

Feb 9, 2010·BMC Infectious Diseases·Rindra V RandremananaDominique J Bicout
Sep 28, 2013·BMC Neurology·Elaine KingwellRuth Ann Marrie
Jan 24, 2014·International Journal of MS Care·Ruth Ann Marrie, Caroline Gryba
Jul 23, 2013·Neurological Sciences : Official Journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology·Roberto BergamaschiMauro Zaffaroni
Dec 16, 2010·The Canadian Journal of Neurological Sciences. Le Journal Canadien Des Sciences Neurologiques·Scott SlokaV Wee Yong
Jul 31, 2013·American Journal of Epidemiology·Chris GreenRuth Ann Marrie
Mar 18, 2010·International Review of Psychiatry·Ephrosyni KoutsourakiStavros Baloyannis
Jan 3, 2013·European Journal of Neurology : the Official Journal of the European Federation of Neurological Societies·A GajofattoM D Benedetti
Apr 20, 2010·Lancet Neurology·Nils Koch-Henriksen, Per Soelberg Sørensen
Apr 20, 2013·Multiple Sclerosis : Clinical and Laboratory Research·M PuthenparampilUNKNOWN Multiple Sclerosis Epidemiology Veneto Study Group (MuSEV)
Mar 2, 2012·Neuroepidemiology·Cristina MontomoliVittorio E Cosi
Dec 25, 2019·Neurological Sciences : Official Journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology·Roberto BergamaschiCristina Montomoli
Sep 8, 2020·Environmental Science and Pollution Research International·Roberto BergamaschiCristina Montomoli
Oct 12, 2017·Neurological Sciences : Official Journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology·Daiana BezziniPaolo Francesconi
Jan 4, 2017·Neurological Sciences : Official Journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology·Mario Alberto Battaglia, Daiana Bezzini
Apr 5, 2021·Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders·Soheil HashtarkhaniNasser Bagheri

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