Bias in half-life estimates using log concentration regression in the presence of background exposures, and potential solutions

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology
Scott M Bartell

Abstract

Regression of log serum concentrations or log urine concentrations on time elapsed after primary exposure ceases is a common method for estimating the elimination rates and corresponding half-lives for environmental contaminants. However, this method produces bias in the presence of ongoing background exposures. A general formula for the amount of bias introduced by background exposures under any single compartment pharmacokinetic model is derived here, and simpler expressions and graphical results are presented for the special case of regularly spaced biomarker measurements. The formulas are also applied to evaluate the potential bias from background exposures in recently published half-life estimates for perfluorooctanoate. These published half-lives are likely to be overestimated because of bias from background exposures, by about 1-26%. Background exposures can contribute substantial bias to half-life estimates based on longer follow-up times, even when the background contribution constitutes a small fraction of total exposure at baseline.

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Citations

Oct 16, 2012·Environmental Health Perspectives·Lesa L AylwardCatherine M Bodnar
Nov 11, 2014·Environmental Science & Technology·Colleen M MakeyThomas F Webster
Sep 19, 2015·Environmental Health : a Global Access Science Source·Shinya MatsumotoTomoaki Imamura
Apr 13, 2015·Environmental Research·Mia V GalloUNKNOWN Akwesasne Task Force on the Environment
Jan 22, 2015·Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology·Zheng LiChristopher D Simpson
Mar 15, 2013·Environmental Science & Technology·Leo W Y YeungScott A Mabury
Sep 9, 2016·Environmental Health : a Global Access Science Source·Shinya MatsumotoTomoaki Imamura
Oct 27, 2017·Environmental Health Perspectives·Scott M Bartell
May 8, 2021·International Journal of Hygiene and Environmental Health·Chang Ho YuZhihua Tina Fan
Aug 18, 2021·Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology : RTP·Michael Dourson, Bernard Gadagbui

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