Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19: A next generation matrix approach

Infectious Disease Modelling
David N FismanAshleigh R Tuite

Abstract

The use of masks as a means of reducing transmission of COVID-19 outside healthcare settings has proved controversial. Masks are thought to have two modes of effect: they prevent infection with COVID-19 in wearers; and prevent transmission by individuals with subclinical infection. We used a simple next-generation matrix approach to estimate the conditions under which masks would reduce the reproduction number of COVID-19 under a threshold of 1. Our model takes into account the possibility of assortative mixing, where mask users interact preferentially with other mask users. We make 3 key observations: 1. Masks, even with suboptimal efficacy in both prevention of acquisition and transmission of infection, could substantially decrease the reproduction number for COVID-19 if widely used. 2. Widespread masking may be sufficient to suppress epidemics where R has been brought close to 1 via other measures (e.g., distancing). 3. "Assortment" within populations (the tendency for interactions between masked individuals to be more likely than interactions between masked and unmasked individuals) would rapidly erode the impact of masks. As such, mask uptake needs to be fairly universal to have an effect. This simple model suggests that w...Continue Reading

Citations

Dec 29, 2020·Annals of Internal Medicine·Thomas CzypionkaManuel B Bryant
Dec 17, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Victoria S ShelusMarissa G Hall
Dec 18, 2020·Frontiers in Public Health·Michael C Jarvis
Feb 22, 2021·Journal of Community Health·Ying Shan Doris ZhangNigel Mantou Lou
Mar 16, 2021·JMIR Public Health and Surveillance·Mohammad Al-RamahiAbdullah Wahbeh
Mar 25, 2021·Canadian Journal of Public Health = Revue Canadienne De Santé Publique·Gabrielle BrankstonAmy L Greer
May 11, 2021·Frontiers in Public Health·Valentina Costantino, Chandini Raina MacIntyre
Jun 12, 2021·Frontiers in Robotics and AI·Raul VicenteAjmal Zemmar
Aug 20, 2021·Curēus·Jeremy ClayVan Nguyen

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