Big data modeling to predict platelet usage and minimize wastage in a tertiary care system

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Leying GuanTho D Pham

Abstract

Maintaining a robust blood product supply is an essential requirement to guarantee optimal patient care in modern health care systems. However, daily blood product use is difficult to anticipate. Platelet products are the most variable in daily usage, have short shelf lives, and are also the most expensive to produce, test, and store. Due to the combination of absolute need, uncertain daily demand, and short shelf life, platelet products are frequently wasted due to expiration. Our aim is to build and validate a statistical model to forecast future platelet demand and thereby reduce wastage. We have investigated platelet usage patterns at our institution, and specifically interrogated the relationship between platelet usage and aggregated hospital-wide patient data over a recent consecutive 29-mo period. Using a convex statistical formulation, we have found that platelet usage is highly dependent on weekday/weekend pattern, number of patients with various abnormal complete blood count measurements, and location-specific hospital census data. We incorporated these relationships in a mathematical model to guide collection and ordering strategy. This model minimizes waste due to expiration while avoiding shortages; the number of r...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jan 10, 2019·Behavior Research Methods·A S N KimR S Rosenbaum
Apr 16, 2020·PloS One·Christian ChristensenOlafur Eysteinn Sigurjonsson
Mar 13, 2021·Indian Journal of Hematology & Blood Transfusion : an Official Journal of Indian Society of Hematology and Blood Transfusion·Xiaolin SunYang Yu

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