Can hepatitis C virus prevalence be used as a measure of injection-related human immunodeficiency virus risk in populations of injecting drug users? An ecological analysis.

Addiction
Peter VickermanLucas Wiessing

Abstract

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreaks occur among injecting drug users (IDUs), but where HIV is low insight is required into the future risk of increased transmission. The relationship between hepatitis C virus (HCV) and HIV prevalence among IDUs is explored to determine whether HCV prevalence could indicate HIV risk. Systematic review of IDU HIV/HCV prevalence data and regression analysis using weighted prevalence estimates and time-series data. HIV/HCV prevalence estimates were obtained for 343 regions. In regions other than South America/sub-Saharan Africa (SAm/SSA), mean IDU HIV prevalence is likely to be negligible if HCV prevalence is <30% (95% confidence interval 22-38%) but increases progressively with HCV prevalence thereafter [linearly (beta = 0.39 and R(2) = 0.67) or in proportion to cubed HCV prevalence (beta = 0.40 and R(2) = 0.67)]. In SAm/SSA, limited data suggest that mean HIV prevalence is proportional to HCV prevalence (beta = 0.84, R(2) = 0.99), but will be much greater than in non-SAm/SSA settings with no threshold HCV prevalence that corresponds to low HIV risk. At low HCV prevalences (<50%), time-series data suggest that any change in HIV prevalence over time is likely to be much smaller (<25%) than...Continue Reading

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