Cancer incidence in English children, adolescents and young people: past trends and projections to 2030

British Journal of Cancer
Francesca PesolaP Sasieni

Abstract

Estimating the future incidence of cancer is important to establish sufficient service provision, however, work in this area is limited for cancer in children, adolescents, and young adults (aged 0-24). Age-period-cohort models were applied to cancer incidence rates for the period 1971-2013 in England. This allowed us to extrapolate past trends to 2030. We used the appropriate cancer classification developed for cancers in children and young adults, which are analysed as two separate groups to capture inherent differences. The data set consisted of 119 485 records (55% among 15+ years group). Overall, cancer rates have increased over time and are expected to continue to rise into the future. Of particular interest is the increase in rates of germ cell tumours (in males) and carcinomas (in females) in young adults, since their rates are projected to further increase over time. The estimated future incidence rates provide a baseline for different cancer subtypes, which will allow policymakers to develop a contingency plan to deal with future demands.

Associated Clinical Trials

Aug 31, 2020·Katherine Nathanson, MD

References

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Feb 19, 2015·The New England Journal of Medicine·Elmar A JouraUNKNOWN Broad Spectrum HPV Vaccine Study
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Citations

May 21, 2019·International Journal of Cancer. Journal International Du Cancer·Maarit A LaaksonenClaire M Vajdic
Jul 8, 2019·Cancer Epidemiology·Grit SommerUNKNOWN Swiss Paediatric Oncology Group (SPOG)

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