Capturing and integrating knowledge for managing risks in tunnel works

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Ibsen Chivatá CárdenasFrits A van Tol

Abstract

Risk-related knowledge gained from past construction projects is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. This article describes a proposed approach to capture and integrate risk-related knowledge to support decision making in construction projects. To ameliorate the problem related to the scarcity of risks information often encountered in construction projects, Bayesian Belief Networks are used and expert judgment is elicited to augment available information. Particularly, the article provides an overview of judgment-based biases that can appear in the elicitation of judgments for constructing Bayesian Networks and the provisos that can be made in this respect to minimize these types of bias. The proposed approach is successfully applied to develop six models for top risks in tunnel works. More than 30 tunneling experts in the Netherlands and Germany were involved in the investigation to provide information on identifying relevant scenarios than can lead to failure events associated with tunneling risks. The article has provided an illustration of the applicability of the developed approach for the case of "face instability in soft soils using slurry shields."

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Mar 8, 2006·Health Communication·Katherine Clegg Smith, Melanie Wakefield
Jul 18, 2008·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Piero Baraldi, Enrico Zio
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Oct 30, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Qiang MengSiew Chee Wong

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Citations

May 21, 2014·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Ibsen Chivatá CárdenasFrank Kaalberg
Jul 20, 2013·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Ibsen Chivatá CárdenasFrits A van Tol
Aug 1, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Limao ZhangWenli Liu
Jun 5, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Xiaoyan JiangMartin Skitmore

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