Carbon cycle confidence and uncertainty: Exploring variation among soil biogeochemical models

Global Change Biology
William R WiederGordon B Bonan

Abstract

Emerging insights into factors responsible for soil organic matter stabilization and decomposition are being applied in a variety of contexts, but new tools are needed to facilitate the understanding, evaluation, and improvement of soil biogeochemical theory and models at regional to global scales. To isolate the effects of model structural uncertainty on the global distribution of soil carbon stocks and turnover times we developed a soil biogeochemical testbed that forces three different soil models with consistent climate and plant productivity inputs. The models tested here include a first-order, microbial implicit approach (CASA-CNP), and two recently developed microbially explicit models that can be run at global scales (MIMICS and CORPSE). When forced with common environmental drivers, the soil models generated similar estimates of initial soil carbon stocks (roughly 1,400 Pg C globally, 0-100 cm), but each model shows a different functional relationship between mean annual temperature and inferred turnover times. Subsequently, the models made divergent projections about the fate of these soil carbon stocks over the 20th century, with models either gaining or losing over 20 Pg C globally between 1901 and 2010. Single-forc...Continue Reading

Citations

Oct 8, 2011·Nature·Michael W I SchmidtSusan E Trumbore
Oct 12, 2012·Frontiers in Microbiology·Joshua P Schimel, Sean M Schaeffer
Dec 18, 2013·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Andrew D FriendF Ian Woodward
Mar 17, 2015·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Charles D KovenWilliam J Riley
Nov 25, 2015·Nature·Johannes Lehmann, Markus Kleber
Apr 3, 2016·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Martin RasmussenYiqi Luo
Jun 9, 2016·Global Change Biology·Christopher DeanAndrew J Friedland
Nov 17, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·J C CareyAlbert Tietema
Nov 29, 2016·Nature Communications·Cynthia M KallenbachAndrew Stuart Grandy
Dec 2, 2016·Nature·T W CrowtherMark A Bradford
May 10, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Róisín CommaneSteven C Wofsy

Related Concepts

Computer Software
Thaw
CASA antigen
Projections and Predictions
Vitreous Carbon
Environment
Cell Respiration
Uncertainty
Theoretical Study
Carbon

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Sexual Dimorphism in Neurodegeneration

There exist sex differences in neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative disorders. For instance, multiple sclerosis is more common in women, whereas Parkinson’s disease is more common in men. Here is the latest research on sexual dimorphism in neurodegeneration

HLA Genetic Variation

HLA genetic variation has been found to confer risk for a wide variety of diseases. Identifying these associations and understanding their molecular mechanisms is ongoing and holds promise for the development of therapeutics. Find the latest research on HLA genetic variation here.

Super-resolution Microscopy

Super-resolution microscopy is the term commonly given to fluorescence microscopy techniques with resolutions that are not limited by the diffraction of light. Here are the latest discoveries pertaining to super-resolution microscopy.

Genetic Screens in iPSC-derived Brain Cells

Genetic screening is a critical tool that can be employed to define and understand gene function and interaction. This feed focuses on genetic screens conducted using induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived brain cells.

Brain Lower Grade Glioma

Low grade gliomas in the brain form from oligodendrocytes and astrocytes and are the slowest-growing glioma in adults. Discover the latest research on these brain tumors here.

CD4/CD8 Signaling

Cluster of differentiation 4 and 8 (CD8 and CD8) are glycoproteins founds on the surface of immune cells. Here is the latest research on their role in cell signaling pathways.

Alignment-free Sequence Analysis Tools

Alignment-free sequence analyses have been applied to problems ranging from whole-genome phylogeny to the classification of protein families, identification of horizontally transferred genes, and detection of recombined sequences. Here is the latest research.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.