Cardiac catheterization laboratory inpatient forecast tool: a prospective evaluation

Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA
Matthew F ToerperScott Levin

Abstract

To develop and prospectively evaluate a web-based tool that forecasts the daily bed need for admissions from the cardiac catheterization laboratory using routinely available clinical data within electronic medical records (EMRs). The forecast model was derived using a 13-month retrospective cohort of 6384 catheterization patients. Predictor variables such as demographics, scheduled procedures, and clinical indicators mined from free-text notes were input to a multivariable logistic regression model that predicted the probability of inpatient admission. The model was embedded into a web-based application connected to the local EMR system and used to support bed management decisions. After implementation, the tool was prospectively evaluated for accuracy on a 13-month test cohort of 7029 catheterization patients. The forecast model predicted admission with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.722. Daily aggregate forecasts were accurate to within one bed for 70.3% of days and within three beds for 97.5% of days during the prospective evaluation period. The web-based application housing the forecast model was used by cardiology providers in practice to estimate daily admissions from the catheterization la...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mar 23, 2019·The International Journal of Health Planning and Management·Muhammed OrduChris Tofallis
Mar 6, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Berit I HelgheimAna Lucia Martins

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