Caribbean cyclone activity: an annually-resolved Common Era record.

Scientific Reports
Dominik SchmittHendrik Vogel

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TC) represent a substantial threat to life and property for Caribbean and adjacent populations. The prospective increase of TC magnitudes, expressed in the 15th chapter of the IPCC AR5 report, entails a rising probability of ecological and social disasters, which were tragically exemplified by several severe Caribbean TC strikes during the past 20 years. Modern IPCC-grade climate models, however, still lack the required spatial and temporal resolution to accurately consider the underlying boundary conditions that modulate long-time TC patterns beyond the Instrumental Era. It is thus necessary to provide a synoptic mechanistic understanding regarding the origin of such long-time patterns, in order to predict reliable changes of TC magnitude and frequency under future climate scenarios. Caribbean TC records are still rare and often lack the necessary continuity and resolution to overcome these limitations. Here, we report on an annually-resolved sedimentary archive from the bottom of the Great Blue Hole (Lighthouse Reef, Belize). The TC record encompasses 1885 years and extends all existing site-specific TC archives both in terms of resolution and duration. We identified a likely connection between long-term TC...Continue Reading

References

Jul 15, 2000·Science·T J Crowley
Sep 4, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael E MannFenbiao Ni
Sep 13, 2017·Scientific Reports·Eleanor Frajka-WilliamsAurelie Duchez

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