Changes in chlamydia prevalence and duration of infection estimated from testing and diagnosis rates in England: a model-based analysis using surveillance data, 2000-15

The Lancet. Public Health
Joanna Lewis, Peter J White

Abstract

Chlamydia screening programmes have been implemented in several countries, but the effects of screening on incidence, prevalence, and reproductive sequelae remain unclear. In England, despite increases in testing with the rollout of the National Chlamydia Screening Programme (NCSP; 2003-08), prevalence estimated in 10-yearly population-based surveys was similar before (1999-2001) and after (2010-12) the programme. However, the precision of these previous estimates was limited by the low numbers of infections. We aimed to establish annual, rather than 10-yearly, estimates of chlamydia prevalence and infection duration. In this model-based analysis, we used previously published minimum and maximum estimates and Public Health England data for chlamydia test coverage and diagnoses in men and women aged 15-24 years in England, before, during, and after the scale-up of national chlamydia screening. We used a mechanistic model, which accounted for symptomatic chlamydia testing and asymptomatic screening, to estimate changes in prevalence and average duration of infections for each year. We describe estimates derived from the maximum and minimum numbers of tests and diagnoses as maximum and minimum estimates, regardless of their relati...Continue Reading

Citations

Jul 5, 2018·Drug and Therapeutics Bulletin
Jul 18, 2018·Antibiotics·Lilith K WhittlesXavier Didelot
Jun 15, 2019·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Nicolas VoirinLaurent Cotte
Sep 21, 2019·Epidemiology and Infection·P J White, J Lewis
Nov 3, 2020·Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases·Xinlong ChenDianchang Liu

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