Changing the deferral for men who have sex with men - an improved model to estimate HIV residual risk

Vox Sanguinis
K L Davisonthe Surveillance, Risk Assessment, Policy Sub-Group of the ISBT Transfusion Transmitted Diseases Working Party

Abstract

Eight published studies modelled the impact of changing from a lifetime to time-limited deferral for men who have sex with men (MSM); each predicted greater risk impact than has been observed. This study uses these previous efforts to develop an 'optimized' model to inform future changes to MSM deferrals. HIV residual risk was calculated using observed HIV incidence/prevalence prior to the change in MSM deferral, then with the additional MSM expected under a 12-month deferral for five compliance scenarios, and finally using data observed after implementation of the deferral. Monte Carlo simulation calculated 95% confidence intervals (CI). The architecture of reviewed models was sound, and two were selected for combination into the optimized model. HIV risk estimated by this in the UK under MSM lifetime deferral was 0·102 (95% CI: 0·050-0·172) per million. The model predicted from a 27·8% decrease to a 47·6% increase depending upon compliance pre-implementation of the 12-month deferral. A decrease of 0·9% was observed post-implementation. For Canada, HIV risk under a 5-year deferral was 0·050 (95% CI: 0·00003-0·122) per million. Pre-implementation of the 12-month deferral, the model predicted from 30·2% decrease to 10-fold incre...Continue Reading

References

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Apr 14, 2017·The New England Journal of Medicine·Pierre TiberghienBenoit Vallet

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Citations

Nov 30, 2019·Vox Sanguinis·Sheila F O'BrienUNKNOWN Surveillance, Risk Assessment and Policy Sub-group of the ISBT Transfusion Transmitted Diseases Working Party
Jan 19, 2021·Transfusion·Whitney R SteeleUNKNOWN Transfusion-Transmissible Infections Monitoring System (TTIMS)
Jul 17, 2021·Vox Sanguinis·Eliana AubéUNKNOWN Surveillance, Risk Assessment and Policy Subgroup of the ISBT Transfusion Transmitted Infectious Diseases Working Party

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