DOI: 10.1101/19003202Aug 1, 2019Paper

Changing trends in proportional incidence and 5-year net survival of screened and nonscreened invasive breast cancers among women in England

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
H. WuLanjing Zhang


Background: Uptake of breast cancer screening has been decreasing in England since 2007, and may increase proportional incidence of nonscreened cancers. However, recent trends in proportional incidence and net-survivals of screened and nonscreened breast cancers are unclear. Methods: We extracted population-based proportional incidence and age-standardized 5-year net-survivals from Public Health England, for English women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2011 (linked to death certificates, followed through 2016). Piecewise log-linear models with change-point/joinpoint were used to estimate temporal trends. We conducted a quasi-experimental study to test the hypothesis that the trend-change year of proportional incidence coincided with that of 5-year net-survival. Results: Among 254,063 women in England with invasive breast cancer diagnosed during 1995-2011, there was downward-to-upward trend-change in proportional incidence of nonscreened breast cancers (annual percent change[APC]=5.6 after 2007 versus APC=-3.5 before 2007, P<0.001) in diagnosis-year 2007, when steeper upward-trend in age-standardized 5-year net survival started (APC=5.7 after 2007/2008 versus APC=0.3 before 2007/2008, P<0.001).. Net-survival d...Continue Reading

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