Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico.

BMC Infectious Diseases
Sushma DahalGerardo Chowell

Abstract

Low testing rates and delays in reporting hinder the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. During a public health emergency, estimating all cause excess deaths above an expected level of death can provide a more reliable picture of the mortality burden. Here, we aim to estimate the absolute and relative mortality impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico. We obtained weekly mortality time series due to all causes for Mexico, and by gender, and geographic region from 2015 to 2020. We also compiled surveillance data on COVID-19 cases and deaths to assess the timing and intensity of the pandemic and assembled weekly series of the proportion of tweets about 'death' from Mexico to assess the correlation between people's media interaction about 'death' and the rise in pandemic deaths. We estimated all-cause excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline by fitting Serfling regression models and forecasted the total excess deaths for Mexico for the first 4 weeks of 2021 using the generalized logistic growth model. We estimated the all-cause excess mortality rate associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico in 2020 at 26.10 per 10,000 population, which corresponds to 333,538 ex...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 14, 2021·International Journal of Epidemiology·Leticia CuéllarRuian Ke
Aug 7, 2021·JMIR Mental Health·Anna M HoodLori E Crosby
Oct 23, 2021·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Sushma DahalGerardo Chowell

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