DOI: 10.1101/19001834Sep 26, 2019Paper

Childhood immune imprinting to influenza A shapes birth year-specific risk during seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 epidemics

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Katelyn M GosticJames O Lloyd-Smith

Abstract

Across decades of co-circulation in humans, influenza A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 have caused seasonal epidemics characterized by different age distributions of cases and mortality. H3N2 causes the majority of relatively severe, clinically attended cases in high-risk elderly cohorts, and the majority of overall deaths, whereas H1N1 causes fewer deaths overall, and cases shifted towards young and middle-aged adults. These contrasting age profiles may result from differences in childhood exposure to H1N1 and H3N2 or from differences in evolutionary rate between subtypes. Here we analyze a large epidemiological surveillance dataset to test whether childhood immune imprinting shapes seasonal influenza epidemiology, and if so, whether it acts primarily via immune memory of a particular influenza subtype or via broader immune memory that protects across subtypes. We also test the impact of evolutionary differences between influenza subtypes on age distributions of cases. Likelihood-based model comparison shows that narrow, within-subtype imprinting shapes seasonal influenza risk alongside age-specific risk factors. The data do not support a strong effect of evolutionary rate, or of broadly protective imprinting that acts across subtypes...Continue Reading

Citations

Jan 23, 2020·Cold Spring Harbor Perspectives in Medicine·Michael WorobeyScott E Hensley

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
glycosylation
PCR

Software Mentioned

Nextstrain
GISAID

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