Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long-term wild host-pathogen association

Global Change Biology
Jiasui ZhanJeremy J Burdon

Abstract

Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change - increasing temperature - on the long-term epidemiology of a natural host-pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria. In a host-pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25-year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long-term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particul...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 31, 2019·Global Change Biology·Tobias E HectorMatthew D Hall
Jan 31, 2020·Plant Disease·Xiang-Rong ZhengFeng-Mao Chen
Mar 5, 2019·Evolutionary Applications·E-Jiao WuJiasui Zhan
May 15, 2019·Annual Review of Phytopathology·Jeremy J Burdon
Nov 25, 2020·PLoS Biology·Jeremy J Burdon, Jiasui Zhan
Dec 18, 2020·Frontiers in Plant Science·Demissew Tesfaye TeshomeSanushka Naidoo
Jan 26, 2021·Royal Society Open Science·Carolina Seas, Priscila Chaverri

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