Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA

EcoHealth
Vijay S LimayeJonathan A Patz

Abstract

Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641-20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030-12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 1, 2018·EcoHealth·Jonathan A Patz
Nov 28, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Health Research·Long ZhaiHonglin Wang
Apr 27, 2020·Mechanisms of Ageing and Development·Agostino Di Ciaula, Piero Portincasa
Jun 23, 2021·Climatic Change·Vijay S Limaye
Jul 26, 2021·The European Journal of Health Economics : HEPAC : Health Economics in Prevention and Care·Lucie AdélaïdeMathilde Pascal
Aug 8, 2021·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Ruth McDermott-LevyCaroline H Moore
Oct 23, 2021·Frontiers in Veterinary Science·Katherine E MoonJulia M Gohlke
Dec 1, 2021·International Journal of Biometeorology·Betty O Adegebo

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