Climate Change and Risk Projection: Dynamic Spatial Models of Tsetse and African Trypanosomiasis in Kenya

Annals of the Association of American Geographers
Joseph P MessinaEdward D Walker

Abstract

African trypanosomiasis, otherwise known as sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in animals, is a parasitic protist passed cyclically by the tsetse fly. Despite more than a century of control and eradication efforts, the fly remains widely distributed across Africa and coextensive with other prevalent diseases. Control and planning are hampered by spatially and temporally variant vector distributions, ecologically irrelevant boundaries, and neglect. Tsetse are particularly well suited to move into previously disease-free areas under climate change scenarios, placing unprepared populations at risk. Here we present the modeling framework ATcast, which combines a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with a temporally and spatially dynamic species distribution model to predict tsetse populations over space and time. These modeled results are integrated with Kenyan population data to predict, for the period 2050 to 2059, exposure potential to tsetse and, by association, sleeping sickness and nagana across Kenya.

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Citations

Mar 21, 2015·Vector Borne and Zoonotic Diseases·Emily Sohanna Acheson, Jeremy Thomas Kerr
Aug 15, 2018·The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Winnie A OkeyoAdalgisa Caccone
Jan 29, 2021·Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene·Rachel TidmanRafael Ruiz de Castañeda

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African Trypanosomiasis

African trypanosomiasis, also known as sleeping sickness, is an insect-borne parasitic disease of humans and other animals. It is caused by protozoa of the species Trypanosoma brucei and almost invariably progresses to death unless treated. Discover the latest research on African trypanosomiasis here.