Climate-change impacts on hydrology and nutrients in a Danish lowland river basin

The Science of the Total Environment
Hans E AndersenErik Koch Rasmussen

Abstract

The Mike 11-TRANS modelling system was applied to the lowland Gjern river basin in Denmark to assess climate-change impacts on hydrology and nitrogen retention processes in watercourses, lakes and riparian wetlands. Nutrient losses from land to surface waters were assessed using statistical models incorporating the effect of changed hydrology. Climate-change was predicted by the ECHAM4/OPYC General Circulation Model (IPCC A2 scenario) dynamically downscaled by the Danish HIRHAM regional climate model (25 km grid) for two time slices: 1961-1990 (control) and 2071-2100 (scenario). HIRHAM predicts an increase in mean annual precipitation of 47 mm (5%) and an increase in mean annual air temperature of 3.2 degrees C (43%). The HIRHAM predictions were used as external forcings to the rainfall-runoff model NAM, which was set up and run for 6 subcatchments within and for the entire, Gjern river basin. Mean annual runoff from the river basin increases 27 mm (7.5%, p<0.05) when comparing the scenario to the control. Larger changes, however, were found regarding the extremes; runoff during the wettest year in the 30-year period increased by 58 mm (12.3%). The seasonal pattern is expected to change with significantly higher runoff during w...Continue Reading

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Citations

Nov 10, 2012·The Science of the Total Environment·M FlouryY Souchon
May 5, 2010·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Hampus MarkenstenIrina Persson
Nov 30, 2010·The Science of the Total Environment·C SprengerA Pekdeger
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Mar 22, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Yunxing YinZheng Zheng
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Jun 8, 2018·Environmental Science. Processes & Impacts·Xinghui XiaZhihuang Li
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Apr 6, 2019·Journal of Environmental Quality·Dominik ZakBrian Kronvang
Dec 20, 2018·Journal of the American Water Resources Association·Rory CoffeyThomas Johnson
May 18, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Rasmus Jes PetersenBrian Kronvang
Jul 31, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Frank A WardSaud A Amer
Apr 14, 2019·Environmental Science & Technology·Tristan C BallardAnna M Michalak

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